Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
84 0x8469…539f crypto 290 markets active 2d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+9%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%150W / 140L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$15
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$28
other 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 37% -1.8%
≤30d 288 -6.1% -15.0% 52% 42% -6.8%
≤90d 288 -6.1% -15.0% 52% 42% -6.8%
all 290 -6.0% -14.9% 52% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -6.8%
10% -23.1% 29% -15.7%
15% -30.5% 22% -23.8%
20% -37.3% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses150 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)290 / 290
History coverage156d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 290 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$10 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 793 history records