Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x846c…0a1f other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$5
politics 33% −$3
sports 8% +$17
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage126d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $101 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $258 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $107 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $99 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $146 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $115 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $135 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 6h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 18h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 23h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 33h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $9 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 16d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 23d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 24d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 25d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 25d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 28d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 28d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records