Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x846c…abf5 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-10%) realized −$76 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$43
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$73
sports 48% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.3% -27.0% 43% 38% -15.3%
≤30d 48 -25.5% -32.6% 35% 29% -20.2%
≤90d 48 -25.5% -32.6% 35% 29% -20.2%
all 48 -25.5% -32.6% 35% 29% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 29% -20.2%
10% -39.0% 29% -27.8%
15% -44.9% 27% -34.8%
20% -50.3% 23% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage15d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 64¢ $25 $48 +$23 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$17 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -82%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$9 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$17 +143%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +166%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 3¢ $10 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 14¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Algeria BUY 4¢ $8 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 34¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $18 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.11 · official $47.35 (match) · 84 history records