Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x846e…c589 crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+3%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%59W / 17L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$29
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$42
finance 2% +$7
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 17% -8.2%
≤30d 76 +8.9% -1.4% 78% 25% -7.3%
≤90d 76 +8.9% -1.4% 78% 25% -7.3%
all 76 +8.9% -1.4% 78% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 25% -7.3%
10% -10.9% 14% -16.2%
15% -19.5% 12% -24.3%
20% -27.4% 11% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses59 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage13d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $91 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records