Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x846f…9c62 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,190 (+20%) realized +$3,107 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,458per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$6,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,553
7 days+$3,553
14 days+$2,996
30 days+$2,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +50.3% +35.9% 100% 83% +32.7%
≤30d 7 +39.1% +25.8% 86% 71% +18.7%
≤90d 7 +39.1% +25.8% 86% 71% +18.7%
all 7 +39.1% +25.8% 86% 71% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.8% 71% +18.7%
10% +13.8% 57% +7.3%
15% +2.8% 57% -3.0%
20% -7.3% 29% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$592 vs −$557 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.38 per $1 lost it wins $6.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$6,431
Realized+$3,107
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,458
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $3,048 $3,145 +$97 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1,500 $1,505 +$5 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1,100 $1,092 −$8 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $700 $689 −$11 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$276 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,818 +$887 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,675 +$314 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $999 +$1,234 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,004 +$96 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,612 +$746 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,995 −$557 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $167 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $611 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $912 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,358 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,994 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $602 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $999 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $500 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 48¢ $938 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $479 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,430.74 · official $6,430.74 (match) · 35 history records