Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8470…70c4 crypto 1359 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,057 (-1%) realized −$18,057 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1337W / 21L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,411per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$624
7 days−$122
14 days−$15,916
30 days−$24,672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20,737
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 964 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 1358 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -10.1%
all 1358 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$3,405) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$2,660 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18,057
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1337 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1358 / 1359
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$2,411
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1358 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $316 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $2,902 +$32 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $291 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $246 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,461 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2,414 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,144 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2,030 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2,802 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2,879 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2,902 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,704 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2,902 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2,802 +$31 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $677 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,994 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2,722 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,982 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,834 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $963 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1,294 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2,680 +$25 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1,854 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2,577 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2,740 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2,902 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $750 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2,558 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2,390 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $666 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $888 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $413 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2,902 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2,902 +$32 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $316 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $751 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,152 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $246 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,461 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,125 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $289 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,144 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,030 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,802 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $774 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,028 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,832 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,802 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,778 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $125 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,704 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $241 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,760 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,772 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,001 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,001 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,802 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,902 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2,802 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3430 history records