Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8470…aee9 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-12%) realized −$174 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%69W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$156
finance 28% −$33
crypto 19% −$46
other 16% +$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 108 -23.8% -31.1% 49% 26% -25.7%
≤90d 131 -16.6% -24.6% 53% 31% -24.6%
all 131 -16.6% -24.6% 53% 31% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 31% -24.6%
10% -31.8% 24% -31.8%
15% -38.4% 18% -38.4%
20% -44.4% 14% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses69 / 62
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage38d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 50¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 02 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 31 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $114 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 30? May 31 $2 −$1 -40%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $6 +$5 +85%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $67 −$55 -82%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $10 −$6 -57%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $38 −$7 -19%
ITF Grado: Oliver Crawford vs Matteo Sciahbasi May 29 $13 +$1 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $4 +$5 +129%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $24 +$9 +36%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kristina Kroitor vs Sevil Yuldasheva May 29 $30 +$2 +5%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Gabriele Bosio vs Ivan Iutkin May 29 $13 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $2 −$1 -49%
ITF Gimcheon: Hugo Hashimoto vs Dong Ju Kim May 29 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $8 −$3 -31%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 28 $5 $0 +9%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Sandro Kopp May 28 $2 $0 +21%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $68 −$22 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $10 $0 +4%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $36 $0 +1%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Chenting Zhu May 28 $6 $0 +4%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Daria Khomutsianskaya May 28 $26 $0 -1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $11 +$3 +29%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $1 $0 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 27? May 27 $44 +$3 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $4 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 87¢ $31 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 89¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 89¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $2 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? SELL Up 13¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? SELL Down 53¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? BUY Down 48¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? SELL Down 56¢ $18 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? BUY Down 45¢ $16 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.65 · official $36.50 (match) · 355 history records