Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x8473…70ef other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,840 (+23%) realized +$705 · open +$1,135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$8,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 72% +$722
other 28% +$851
finance 0% −$20
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +139.7% +116.9% 100% 100% +116.9%
≤30d 1 +139.7% +116.9% 100% 100% +116.9%
≤90d 3 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 33% +103.6%
all 3 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 33% +103.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 33% +103.6%
10% -34.6% 33% +84.1%
15% -40.9% 33% +66.4%
20% -46.7% 33% +50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +125% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +125% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$429 vs −$10 · ×42.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.44 per $1 lost it wins $21.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$8,025
Realized+$705
Unrealized+$1,135
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions31
Markets (closed)3 / 34
History coverage50d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 50¢ 77¢ $800 $1,237 +$437 (+55%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 32¢ 51¢ $601 $960 +$360 (+60%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $300 $635 +$335 (+112%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $700 $619 −$81 (-12%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $400 $579 +$179 (+45%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $400 $485 +$85 (+21%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $350 $474 +$124 (+35%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $300 $405 +$105 (+35%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $400 $376 −$24 (-6%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 39¢ 31¢ $400 $323 −$77 (-19%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $575 $323 −$252 (-44%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 13¢ 36¢ $100 $278 +$178 (+178%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $190 $198 +$8 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $300 $148 −$152 (-51%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $100 $148 +$48 (+48%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $300 $145 −$155 (-52%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $200 $138 −$62 (-31%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 64¢ 86¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $30 $55 +$25 (+83%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $307 +$429 +140%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.50 (HIGH) by April May 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April May 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 17m
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 18m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $52 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 11¢ $104 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $96 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $96 3h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $97 3h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 3h
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 21¢ $52 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 15¢ $52 5d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $144 6d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $178 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 9d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY Yes 7¢ $52 13d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o BUY Yes 18¢ $103 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,025.47 · official $8,025.47 (match) · 94 history records