Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8476…dc8d sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 35L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$616
14 days−$1,376
30 days−$2,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$497
other 7% −$144
crypto 2% +$447
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -43.0% -48.4% 30% 30% -32.9%
≤30d 22 -30.2% -36.9% 36% 36% -33.8%
≤90d 50 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 46% -9.0%
all 58 -6.0% -14.9% 40% 40% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 40% -10.4%
10% -23.1% 40% -18.9%
15% -30.5% 40% -26.8%
20% -37.3% 40% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$254 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage210d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $448 $444 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Jun 24 $475 −$468 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $436 +$294 +67%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 Jun 22 $393 −$393 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $480 +$447 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $438 −$431 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $55 +$60 +109%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $444 −$437 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $499 +$447 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $514 +$442 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $515 −$508 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $712 −$704 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 05 $408 −$402 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $449 −$442 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 03 $930 −$916 -98%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) May 29 $561 −$552 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $555 +$441 +79%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) May 28 $440 +$445 +101%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $411 +$450 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $481 +$448 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $476 +$444 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 May 24 $432 +$420 +97%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5 May 22 $442 −$435 -98%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $224 −$22 -10%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $459 +$445 +97%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 20 $299 +$255 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $459 +$446 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5 May 18 $439 −$432 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $436 −$430 -98%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 May 17 $555 +$440 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $420 +$442 +105%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) May 14 $495 −$488 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $427 +$449 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 12 $427 −$421 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $455 +$441 +97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 11 $379 +$367 +97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $407 +$523 +129%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $268 −$264 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 08 $204 +$206 +101%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $203 −$2 -1%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $203 −$13 -7%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 07 $203 +$155 +76%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $203 +$205 +101%
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 06 $304 −$300 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 05 $203 −$6 -3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $225 −$200 -89%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $455 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 51¢ $475 8h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $436 25h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 46¢ $393 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $12 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $475 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $64 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $4 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $47 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $314 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $124 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $55 6d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 8d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 49¢ $440 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $2 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $497 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 53¢ $514 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $515 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $712 12d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $4 18d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $404 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 49¢ $9 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 49¢ $440 20d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 50¢ $468 21d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 50¢ $462 21d
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $102 25d
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $2 25d
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $457 25d
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 55¢ $555 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.92 · official $443.92 (match) · 109 history records