Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x847b…274c sports 340 markets active 5d ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-2%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%212W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$100
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 50% -31.2%
≤30d 88 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 55% -16.9%
≤90d 340 +5.6% -4.5% 62% 51% -12.5%
all 340 +5.6% -4.5% 62% 51% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 51% -12.5%
10% -13.6% 42% -20.8%
15% -21.9% 33% -28.5%
20% -29.6% 25% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses212 / 128
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)340 / 340
History coverage85d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 340 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $8 −$5 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 −$30 -80%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 02 $4 +$3 +76%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 01 $1 +$1 +76%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $50 −$46 -90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $16 +$12 +74%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $6 +$3 +50%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 170.5 May 30 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) May 29 $39 +$40 +102%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $36 +$11 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $18 −$10 -58%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) May 29 $4 +$3 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $16 +$6 +39%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $61 +$5 +9%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) May 28 $7 +$6 +83%
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) May 28 $6 +$5 +90%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) May 28 $6 +$4 +70%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 May 28 $7 −$3 -42%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 May 28 $6 −$2 -27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $56 +$8 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $1 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $3 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Phoenix Mercury 26¢ $3 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 60¢ $8 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $8 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $7 4d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 91¢ $7 4d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 96¢ $0 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 6¢ $0 4d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $4 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $30 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 86¢ $24 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 73¢ $20 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Minnesota Lynx 27¢ $10 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 26¢ $10 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) SELL Indiana Fever 59¢ $3 4d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 45¢ $2 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $6 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 58¢ $5 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 41¢ $2 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $2 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $1 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 5¢ $1 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 775 history records