Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x847c…9ff8 weather 727 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$690 (+7%) realized +$708 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%294W / 419L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$116
14 days−$186
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$698
sports 31% −$173
other 10% +$127
crypto 2% −$47
politics 1% +$11
world 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 465 -9.5% -18.2% 50% 38% -17.6%
≤90d 713 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 31% -3.3%
all 713 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 31% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 31% -3.3%
10% -32.7% 27% -12.6%
15% -39.2% 23% -21.0%
20% -45.1% 19% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$708
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses294 / 419
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions15
Markets (closed)713 / 727
History coverage63d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 45¢ 42¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? No 12¢ 20¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? No 64¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Enjoy 66¢ 62¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Enjoy 67¢ 61¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Under 71¢ 68¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Under 51¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Enjoy 67¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? No 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? Yes 88¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 402 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 1? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$23 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$16 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$2 +36%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$5 +36%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 19 $3 +$3 +109%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$4 +105%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $30 +$24 +79%
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +28%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$3 +55%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$5 +152%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$5 +31%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$16 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 43¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $15 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 71¢ $12 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $12 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $12 9h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $15 12h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $3 13h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $18 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $15 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $9 38h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 36¢ $6 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $30 39h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 74¢ $30 39h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 67¢ $15 39h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 66¢ $15 39h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 67¢ $6 39h
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY Yangon Galacticos 48¢ $3 40h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 73¢ $6 40h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 73¢ $6 40h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 73¢ $15 40h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 47¢ $3 40h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $15 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.81 · official $240.80 (match) · 1242 history records