Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x847c…dffd
crypto · 280 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$29 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses153 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)262 / 280
History coverage64d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 18 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 65¢ 81¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 59¢ 74¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 59¢ 73¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 87¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+32%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 68¢ 74¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No 83¢ 87¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Biniam Girmay win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +13%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31? May 31 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? May 29 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29? May 29 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $2 +$2 +155%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 -9%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $2 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $3 −$2 -54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 −$1 -23%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 22 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 21 $4 +$2 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? May 19 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% +$8
world 23% −$9
weather 15% +$22
other 3% −$11
sports 2% +$4
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $3 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $2 27h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 38¢ $1 39h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 39h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 39h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8? BUY No 89¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? BUY No 90¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +6.1% -4.0% 71% 50% -4.8%
≤30d 56 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 32% -9.2%
≤90d 262 +2.2% -7.5% 58% 35% -8.1%
all 262 +2.2% -7.5% 58% 35% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 35% -8.1%
10% -16.4% 23% -16.9%
15% -24.4% 16% -24.9%
20% -31.8% 13% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.44 · official $46.47 (match) · 907 history records