Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x847e…f31e world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$9
politics 21% $0
other 21% +$1
sports 13% −$7
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 0% −$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 72 -0.6% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.8%
all 81 -2.3% -11.6% 28% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage536d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $61 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $151 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $35 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $48 −$4 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $18 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $67 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $50 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $35 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $15 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $10 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $27 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $4 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $31 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $14 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.40 · official $29.57 (match) · 332 history records