Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x847f…218a
sports · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$24 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 3 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 60¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Arda Güler: 1+ shots Yes 83¢ 55¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Under 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Under 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Over 68¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $3 +$3 +102%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$5
other 27% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 41m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 1¢ $2 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 84¢ $6 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $9 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 76¢ $10 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $9 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 70¢ $6 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $3 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $5 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $0 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $14 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $1 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $1 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 75¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $8 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 31h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 39h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $10 2d
Arda Güler: 1+ shots BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $0 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -35.4%
≤30d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -35.4%
≤90d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -35.4%
all 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 54% -35.4%
10% -9.4% 46% -41.6%
15% -18.1% 38% -47.2%
20% -26.2% 38% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.51 · official $20.51 (match) · 29 history records