Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8480…157a other 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$32
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$25
politics 23% −$21
sports 19% −$16
crypto 13% −$11
economics 5% −$5
world 5% −$3
culture 4% −$7
finance 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 112 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 134 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage102d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 −$2 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $219 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $205 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $267 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $62 −$5 -8%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $56 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $105 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $149 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $65 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $63 −$3 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $234 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 9m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $60 42m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $60 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 6h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 14h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $43 14h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 30h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 31h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $46 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $47 44h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $36 45h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $37 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.98 · official $53.98 (match) · 499 history records