Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

84 0x8487…7714 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$215 (-1%) realized −$104 · open −$111

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%15W / 7L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$674per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$70est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$537

7 days+$2,659

14 days+$2,659

30 days−$300

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+1.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+17.1%	+6.0%	71%	71%	+9.6%
≤30d	22	+11.8%	+1.2%	68%	68%	-11.3%
≤90d	22	+11.8%	+1.2%	68%	68%	-11.3%
all	22	+11.8%	+1.2%	68%	68%	-11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.2%	68%	-11.3%
10%	-8.5%	64%	-19.8%
15%	-17.4%	50%	-27.5%
20%	-25.5%	45%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +31% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$358 vs −$810 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$1,089

Realized−$104

Unrealized−$111

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses15 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$70

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage27d

Avg bet$674

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime?	Yes	75¢	100¢	$500	$666	+$166 (+33%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	36¢	$500	$423	−$77 (-15%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	55¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$505	+$230	+46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	Jun 22	$101	−$100	-99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$305	−$300	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$506	+$301	+60%
Uruguay leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$507	+$473	+93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime?	Jun 21	$101	+$74	+73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$505	−$313	-62%
Spain leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$504	+$172	+34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$502	−$500	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$506	+$371	+73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$508	−$500	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,515	+$798	+53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$506	+$327	+65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$508	+$534	+105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$504	+$154	+31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$506	+$288	+57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$509	+$711	+140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,007	−$1,000	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,011	+$552	+55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,006	+$229	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,002	+$159	+16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 04	$3,020	−$2,960	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$509	2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	55¢	$203	5h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	75¢	$504	5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$305	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$505	9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$506	25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	27¢	$191	27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	28h
Uruguay leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	51¢	$507	29h
Spain leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	74¢	$504	34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$505	35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$502	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$506	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$508	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$503	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$506	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$506	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$506	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$508	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$504	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$506	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$509	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1,007	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$1,011	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$1,006	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	80¢	$1,160	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,002	6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1,007	18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2,012	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,089.13 · official $1,089.13 (match) · 44 history records