Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8487…c1db
sports · 1081 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,272 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,137 · open −$136
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$209
Realized−$1,137
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses648 / 402
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1050 / 1081
History coverage726d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 31 History 1050 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$349
7 days−$160
14 days−$132
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 75¢ 69¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-7%)
Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 50 ETH before 2027? No 78¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 60¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+102%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 77¢ 34¢ $38 $17 −$21 (-55%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 75¢ 81¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 80¢ 77¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will BNB reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? No 62¢ 73¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 45¢ 40¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 73¢ 58¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0050 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0042 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 71¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 77¢ 34¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-56%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 87¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0062 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 79¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Milady floor price reach 6 ETH before 2027? No 74¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price reach 10 ETH before 2027? No 76¢ 61¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 51¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 50¢ 12¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Will Milady floor price reach 4 ETH before 2027? No 86¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $45 +$14 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$6 +40%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $104 −$103 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$31 +62%
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 −$13 -59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 +$26 +113%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $29 +$25 +88%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $95 +$79 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $33 +$10 +30%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $34 +$12 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $76 +$28 +37%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $75 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $70 +$45 +64%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $53 +$71 +134%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $56 +$59 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 +$38 +95%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $7 +$8 +112%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$27 +262%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$14 +89%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $98 +$66 +67%
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $11 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $96 −$95 -98%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will UNI reach $11.00 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +14%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 06 $16 −$2 -15%
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 06 $20 +$4 +18%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will UNI reach $9.50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +8%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$1,633
other 12% +$260
crypto 9% −$84
finance 7% +$115
world 4% +$155
tech 1% −$50
politics 1% +$31
economics 1% −$17
culture 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 12¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 11¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 75¢ $35 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 71¢ $39 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $25 6h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 76¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 70¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $10 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $10 9h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 68¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $82 9h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 61¢ $13 9h
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $14 9h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $29 10h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $61 15h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $51 15h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $34 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 61¢ $51 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 47% -16.1%
≤30d 102 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 49% -15.7%
≤90d 924 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 53% -14.1%
all 1050 -3.9% -13.0% 62% 53% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 53% -14.0%
10% -21.3% 42% -22.2%
15% -28.9% 31% -29.8%
20% -35.9% 21% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.75 · official $208.76 (match) · 3032 history records