Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8488…588c other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,136 (-3%) realized −$19,042 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%66W / 76L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,262per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$4,190est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$6,208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$45,086
sports 40% +$23,489
crypto 4% −$10,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.3% +14.3% 73% 73% +28.0%
≤30d 71 -4.2% -13.3% 56% 56% +8.3%
≤90d 142 -14.2% -22.3% 46% 46% -2.6%
all 142 -14.2% -22.3% 46% 46% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 46% -2.6%
10% -29.8% 42% -11.9%
15% ← realistic here -36.5% 38% -20.4%
20% -42.8% 35% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$8,785) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,712 vs −$3,331 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$6,208
Realized−$19,042
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses66 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$4,190
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$5,262
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $5,400 $5,310 −$90 (-2%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 70¢ 69¢ $685 $681 −$4 (-1%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ 30¢ $220 $217 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $11,664 +$3,516 +30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16,951 +$7,049 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15,840 +$8,160 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13,187 +$11,813 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $13,802 −$13,802 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14,880 +$9,120 +61%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 13 $429 −$429 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13,556 +$11,664 +86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8,075 +$8,637 +107%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $795 +$973 +122%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,825 +$2,211 +58%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $22,565 +$3,585 +16%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $451 −$451 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $17,055 +$2,957 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4,356 +$644 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $16,440 +$3,560 +22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20,168 +$4,232 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3,276 +$1,724 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $19,219 +$6,360 +33%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $15,166 +$9,245 +61%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 05 $373 −$373 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $743 −$743 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $14,420 −$14,420 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $19,381 −$19,381 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,031 +$1,969 +49%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3,855 −$3,855 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6,128 +$10,218 +167%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3,714 +$2,286 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $437 −$28 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8,129 +$6,690 +82%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2,824 +$700 +25%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1,302 −$1,302 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $1,388 −$1,388 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,459 +$193 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $15,143 +$9,463 +62%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $26 +$48 +180%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $398 −$398 -100%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $433 −$433 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $7,878 −$7,878 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $1,554 +$963 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $631 +$111 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $3,926 +$1,074 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $6,422 +$6,541 +102%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 30 $996 −$996 -100%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $225 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $509 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $5,513 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $96 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $50 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $36 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $93 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $41 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $891 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $12 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $335 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $480 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $246 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $144 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $1,588 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $1,464 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $1,653 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $19 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $497 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $778 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $931 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $86 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $36 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $2 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $138 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $28 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $87 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $2 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $45 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $54 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,207.86 · official $6,207.95 (match) · 3500 history records