Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8489…e211
other · 7 markets active 324d ago
4.5score
+$148,839 +8714%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,400 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage433d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 0 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? No 69¢ 0¢ $181 $0 −$181 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Jul 25 $181 −$181 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Apr 28 $178 +$3 +2%
Maduro out before September? Sep 15 $149 +$28 +19%
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? Aug 03 $100 +$49 +49%
Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on M May 20 $250 $0 +0%
Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5? May 05 $750 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX successfully launch and land Starship SN15 by April 28, 20 Apr 29 $100 +$10,500 +10500%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$77
politics 11% −$181
economics 10% +$3
tech 6% +$10,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? BUY No 69¢ $181 323d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? BUY No 98¢ $178 637d
Maduro out before September? BUY No 84¢ $149 679d
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? SELL No 58¢ $149 679d
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? BUY No 39¢ $100 756d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+245.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +281.3% +245.0% 57% 43% +91.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +245.0% 43% +91.1%
10% +212.0% 29% +72.8%
15% +181.9% 29% +56.1%
20% +154.2% 14% +40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 510 history records