Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x848c…2bf0 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,603 (+67%) realized +$2,626 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,609
other 24% +$602
crypto 5% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +44.1% +30.4% 33% 33% +51.7%
≤30d 42 +44.1% +30.4% 33% 33% +51.7%
≤90d 42 +44.1% +30.4% 33% 33% +51.7%
all 42 +44.1% +30.4% 33% 33% +51.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 33% +51.7%
10% +17.9% 31% +37.2%
15% +6.5% 31% +23.9%
20% -3.9% 31% +11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$64 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized+$2,626
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage4d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 36¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $135 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $81 $66 −$15 (-18%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $110 +$96 +88%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $45 +$25 +56%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $86 +$101 +118%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $41 +$266 +646%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 +$819 +398%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $274 +$1,120 +408%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $166 +$325 +196%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $48 +$552 +1163%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $62 +$240 +387%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$54 +305%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $92 +$66 +72%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$181 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $12 +$85 +708%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $256 15m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $62 16m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $153 18m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 53m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $206 54m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $144 1h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 12¢ $124 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $106 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $110 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $75 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $785 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $45 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $16 20h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Colombia 10¢ $21 20h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $86 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 92¢ $240 20h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 4¢ $68 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 19¢ $206 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $1,394 21h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 1¢ $32 23h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 5¢ $34 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $274 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $59 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $103 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $205 24h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $103 26h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.33 · official $673.33 (match) · 101 history records