Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x848d…efbe sports 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,586 (-13%) realized −$3,621 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%45W / 73L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,474
7 days+$1,725
14 days+$1,419
30 days+$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,966
sports 40% −$329
crypto 7% −$581
world 1% −$260
tech 1% −$246
finance 1% −$30
weather 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +43.9% +30.2% 58% 58% +62.1%
≤30d 26 -20.8% -28.3% 27% 27% +1.8%
≤90d 56 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 39% -17.0%
all 118 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 35% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 35% -21.3%
10% -38.0% 25% -28.8%
15% -44.0% 22% -35.7%
20% -49.5% 18% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$122 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$3,621
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses45 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions9
Markets (closed)118 / 127
History coverage340d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $220 $360 +$140 (+64%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $22 $3 −$18 (-84%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $957 +$624 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$40 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $291 −$142 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $400 +$458 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$60 +309%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $140 +$531 +379%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 +$222 +73%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $259 +$121 +47%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $7 +$1 +19%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $87 −$25 -29%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 06 $156 −$156 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $689 −$54 -8%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $87 −$20 -24%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $88 −$64 -73%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 25 $160 −$92 -58%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 25 $105 −$69 -66%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 25 $26 −$9 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 25 $820 −$601 -73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $73 −$42 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 21 $35 −$29 -83%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 17 $125 −$122 -98%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 08 $627 +$144 +23%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 08 $1,598 −$191 -12%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $728 −$644 -88%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 31 $350 −$300 -86%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $723 −$639 -88%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $306 −$102 -33%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 31 $740 +$210 +28%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 30 $517 −$366 -71%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 27 $202 +$8 +4%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 27 $1,515 +$266 +18%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $1,924 −$659 -34%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 24 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 24 $100 +$52 +52%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 23 $395 +$69 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $100 +$186 +186%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $518 +$202 +39%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $300 +$35 +12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $283 −$263 -93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $200 −$165 -82%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $86 +$14 +16%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $237 +$62 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 19? Mar 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $223 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $67 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $38 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $999 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $25 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $378 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $407 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.01 · official $447.02 (match) · 740 history records