Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x848e…f8f6 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$6
other 8% −$5
politics 7% +$1
tech 2% −$1
sports 2% +$12
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 35 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.9%
all 59 -1.9% -11.3% 39% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage485d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $86 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 −$4 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$3 -11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $27 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $59 −$2 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $23 +$2 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $25 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $41 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $97 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $49 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $38 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records