Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
84 0x848e…d966 crypto 394 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$678 (+1%) realized +$679 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%175W / 218L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$1,198
sports 21% +$1,376
other 13% +$22
world 1% +$30
tech 1% +$214
politics 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -63.5% -67.0% 22% 22% -2.6%
≤30d 11 -70.2% -73.0% 18% 18% -16.3%
≤90d 11 -70.2% -73.0% 18% 18% -16.3%
all 393 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 39% -9.0%
10% -25.0% 33% -17.7%
15% -32.3% 28% -25.6%
20% -38.9% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$75 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$679
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses175 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)393 / 394
History coverage146d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $38 −$36 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $367 +$77 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $252 +$115 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 26 $125 +$206 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 26 $75 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 26 $78 −$77 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 26 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 05 $65 −$57 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 05 $105 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 05 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 05 $125 +$79 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 05 $140 +$76 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 05 $61 +$129 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 04 $67 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 04 $299 −$299 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 04 $60 +$85 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 04 $115 +$108 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 04 $105 +$85 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 04 $35 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 04 $125 +$57 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 04 $151 +$117 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 04 $84 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 04 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 04 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 19m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $190 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $38 36m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 38m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $443 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $367 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $367 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $55 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $29 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $100 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $101 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $25 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $230 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $100 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $25 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $90 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $50 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.32 · official $49.32 (match) · 1338 history records