Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x848f…59b1 sports 92 markets active 3d ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,587 (+7%) realized +$1,587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%56W / 36L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$316
14 days+$2,038
30 days+$1,386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,580
other 37% −$116
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% +$6
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +73.3% +56.8% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 18 +33.4% +20.7% 61% 56% +6.7%
≤90d 19 +31.9% +19.3% 63% 53% +6.5%
all 92 +12.2% +1.5% 61% 47% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 47% -4.0%
10% -8.2% 37% -13.2%
15% -17.1% 29% -21.6%
20% -25.2% 21% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$148 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses56 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage223d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $199 +$148 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $232 +$168 +72%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$93 +91%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $303 +$140 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$91 -60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $122 +$83 +69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$48 -47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$151 +148%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 +$1,193 +388%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $363 −$356 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $399 +$751 +188%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $499 +$293 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3,017 +$372 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,017 −$912 -90%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $100 −$79 -79%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $420 −$326 -78%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 27 $106 +$6 +6%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 23 $80 −$55 -69%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 23 $40 +$111 +278%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $118 +$82 +69%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? Mar 17 $899 −$899 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $200 −$114 -57%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 11 $300 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31? Dec 11 $275 −$190 -69%
Clippers vs. Rockets Dec 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Celtics vs. Bucks Dec 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Thunder vs. Jazz Dec 08 $1,508 +$245 +16%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 07 $150 +$109 +73%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 03 $944 +$176 +19%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Bulls vs. Magic Dec 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Dec 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $200 −$130 -65%
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 02 $44 −$14 -32%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2025 MLS Cup? Dec 02 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 02 $77 −$11 -14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 02 $57 −$14 -25%
Will Team Falcons win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 02 $42 +$7 +17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 02 $86 −$3 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 02 $100 −$4 -4%
Hawks vs. 76ers Dec 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Dec 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $348 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $199 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $232 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $194 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $108 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $443 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $61 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $205 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $55 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $100 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $307 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $159 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,150 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $195 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $792 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 61¢ $499 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $840 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 34¢ $489 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records