Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x848f…6ce0 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$13
other 13% −$2
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage633d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 31 $54 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scott Morrow win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Nov 24 $52 $0 +0%
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Vardy be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brock Bowers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
AOC pregnant in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Davis be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will $BRETT be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Utah win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024? Nov 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Glenn Youngkin for Education Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 27d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 27d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 36d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 37d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 42d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 43d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 45d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 46d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 51d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 52d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 67d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $54 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 73d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $54 85d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $54 85d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 94d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 94d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $54 99d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $54 99d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $54 102d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $41 102d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $13 102d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 105d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 105d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records