Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8490…ac46 sports 979 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$759 (-6%) realized −$771 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%461W / 488L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$144
14 days−$100
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$737
other 12% −$204
world 7% −$135
weather 5% +$160
crypto 4% −$81
politics 3% −$127
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% −$17
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 +22.4% +10.7% 53% 47% -13.1%
≤30d 800 +32.4% +19.8% 50% 45% -12.2%
≤90d 949 +26.3% +14.3% 49% 42% -16.5%
all 949 +26.3% +14.3% 49% 42% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 42% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 36% -24.5%
15% -6.6% 32% -31.8%
20% -15.8% 27% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$771
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses461 / 488
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions30
Markets (closed)949 / 979
History coverage55d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 949 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-3%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 68¢ 78¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+14%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 58¢ 68¢ $25 $30 +$4 (+18%)
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Thomas Faurel 75¢ 74¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ 76¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+45%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 87¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 54¢ 55¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 66¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 70¢ 94¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 89¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? No 45¢ 32¢ $13 $9 −$3 (-28%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No 36¢ 62¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+74%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $12 +$4 +34%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 +$20 +216%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$18 +62%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$28 +94%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $30 +$15 +49%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $7 −$4 -55%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $21 +$15 +71%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $30 +$12 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $30 +$14 +47%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$18 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$12 -39%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $12 +$12 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $12 +$13 +105%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $17 −$11 -66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $4 +$4 +110%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $12 +$7 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 +$11 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $24 +$26 +108%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $42 +$16 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $12 25m
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $2 25m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $8 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 55¢ $6 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 54¢ $12 2h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $12 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $5 5h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $4 5h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $12 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $5 5h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $8 6h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $10 6h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 6h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $2 9h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 53¢ $9 10h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 53¢ $12 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 14h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $9 15h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $10 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $11 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $3 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $6 15h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $6 16h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.78 · official $452.55 · 2709 history records