Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8491…18a4 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$5
other 26% −$7
crypto 7% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.3% -5.6% 67% 33% -5.7%
≤30d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 12% -8.4%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 12% -8.4%
all 44 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 7% -9.6%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage464d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $44 +$5 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $135 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $91 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $6 +$1 +14%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $31 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $18 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $5 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $48 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $48 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $23 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $10 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $34 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $44 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 11d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records