Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8492…f17c sports 846 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$360 (-1%) realized −$366 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%382W / 440L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$416est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$338
14 days+$380
30 days+$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$288
other 21% −$570
crypto 1% +$15
finance 0% +$24
world 0% +$33
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 51% -7.2%
≤30d 509 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 46% -8.0%
≤90d 622 +5.2% -4.8% 48% 46% -10.0%
all 822 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 44% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 44% -11.4%
10% -17.6% 41% -19.9%
15% -25.6% 36% -27.6%
20% -32.9% 29% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$34 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$834
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses382 / 440
Est. fees paid−$416
Open positions24
Markets (closed)822 / 846
History coverage151d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 86¢ 99¢ $261 $300 +$39 (+15%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $132 $175 +$42 (+32%)
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 39¢ 72¢ $78 $145 +$66 (+85%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-84%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 13¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Vekic vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 78¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Set 2 Winner: Vekic vs Eala Vekic 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Paul Paul 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 383 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $99 +$36 +36%
Set 2 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $167 −$166 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $180 +$87 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Hurkacz vs. Altmaier: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $134 +$87 +65%
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $108 +$26 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
Nakashima vs. Buse: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Siniakova Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $71 −$69 -98%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $61 +$28 +45%
Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Bergs vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$57 +112%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $108 +$60 +56%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$60 +293%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $82 −$81 -99%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $201 +$43 +21%
Majchrzak vs. Lehecka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $97 −$96 -99%
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$42 +42%
Lamens vs. Badosa: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
Humbert vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Norrie vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Minaur vs. Diallo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $201 +$40 +20%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
McNally vs. Ruzic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Dimitrov vs. Rodesch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $99 +$47 +48%
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Siniakova vs. Masarova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Damm Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Rublev vs. Hurkacz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $44 −$43 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $125 +$9 +8%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $121 −$120 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Hanfmann Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Mannarino Jun 16 $175 +$409 +234%
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Zarazua Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $134 18m
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova SELL Sabalenka 99¢ $134 19m
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 86¢ $135 39m
Set 2 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria SELL Maria 100¢ $135 42m
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova BUY Sabalenka 72¢ $99 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $99 48m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 79¢ $167 1h
Set 2 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria BUY Maria 74¢ $101 1h
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova SELL Sabalenka 99¢ $267 1h
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova BUY Sabalenka 66¢ $180 1h
Set 1 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria BUY Yastremska 27¢ $41 1h
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 86¢ $127 3h
Hurkacz vs. Altmaier: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 60¢ $134 4h
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 4h
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 80¢ $108 5h
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro BUY Starodubtseva 40¢ $4 5h
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro BUY Starodubtseva 39¢ $40 5h
Nakashima vs. Buse: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $151 5h
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Siniakova BUY Siniakova 43¢ $99 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 17¢ $71 6h
Set 2 Winner: Vekic vs Eala BUY Vekic 24¢ $20 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 13¢ $27 6h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 100¢ $89 7h
Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $128 7h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 68¢ $61 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10h
Starodubtseva vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 10h
Nakashima vs. Buse: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 10h
Bergs vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 10h
Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.68 · official $833.76 (match) · 1478 history records