Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8493…1200 sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$176 (-2%) realized −$151 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$221
7 days−$61
14 days+$18
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$65
world 21% +$22
other 20% −$271
tech 11% +$77
politics 1% −$27
crypto 1% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.1% -14.1% 64% 64% -11.1%
≤30d 27 -12.9% -21.2% 59% 48% -12.4%
≤90d 50 -12.5% -20.9% 60% 40% -12.1%
all 50 -12.5% -20.9% 60% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 40% -12.1%
10% -28.4% 20% -20.5%
15% -35.4% 8% -28.2%
20% -41.7% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions7
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage59d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $98 $119 +$20 (+21%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 73¢ $84 $80 −$3 (-4%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 67¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 62¢ 25¢ $54 $22 −$32 (-60%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $23 +$7 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $705 −$52 -7%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $701 −$12 -2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $205 −$205 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $276 +$37 +13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $140 +$44 +31%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $898 +$122 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$101 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $692 +$100 +14%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $557 +$59 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 02 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? May 31 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $106 +$15 +14%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 22 $10 +$2 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,098 +$4 +0%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$2 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 18 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $500 +$8 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? May 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 26 $29 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $653 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $705 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $23 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $690 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $701 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $74 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $29 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $103 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $26 6h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 22h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 26h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $28 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $273 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $243 29h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $13 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $7 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 84¢ $125 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $99 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 88¢ $16 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 88¢ $149 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 88¢ $565 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 88¢ $148 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 88¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $103 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $31 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.64 · official $455.64 (match) · 162 history records