Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8497…08ee crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$1 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day87.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.0% -9.5% 79% 38% -11.4%
≤30d 47 -0.0% -9.5% 79% 38% -11.4%
≤90d 47 -0.0% -9.5% 79% 38% -11.4%
all 47 -0.0% -9.5% 79% 38% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 38% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 21% -19.9%
15% -26.1% 6% -27.6%
20% -33.3% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day87.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 91¢ 44¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.38 · official $5.38 (match) · 110 history records