Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8499…76e7 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%29W / 29L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$5
other 24% $0
politics 9% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 8% -9.2%
all 58 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses29 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage450d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 48¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $119 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $3 $0 +17%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 07 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on May 23? May 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $12 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $11 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.20 · official $42.20 (match) · 195 history records