Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
84 0x849b…a5fd crypto 920 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,731 (-6%) realized −$2,683 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%298W / 615L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$6,952
sports 16% +$6
other 3% −$124
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -16.7% -24.6% 38% 38% -3.0%
≤30d 57 -18.3% -26.1% 39% 39% -7.0%
≤90d 659 -14.8% -22.9% 34% 33% -22.8%
all 913 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 31% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 31% -25.8%
10% -35.4% 29% -32.9%
15% -41.7% 28% -39.4%
20% -47.4% 24% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$33 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$2,683
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses298 / 615
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)913 / 920
History coverage118d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Over 34¢ 10¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 −$9 -19%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $32 +$82 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $84 +$27 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$22 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$82 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$54 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$56 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$39 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$29 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$42 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$52 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$30 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $58 +$82 +141%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$18 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$29 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $85 +$126 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$26 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $57 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$41 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$33 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 37¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $20 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $70 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $8 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek BUY 56¢ $60 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $114 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $20 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $79 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $134 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.05 · official $87.99 · 2123 history records