Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x849c…4009
other · 113 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18,211 -106%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,566 · open −$55
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,893
Realized−$18,566
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses139 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions60
Markets (closed)464 / 113
Avg bet$152
Trades / day457.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%
Chart Positions 60 History 464 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,085
7 days−$18,588
14 days−$18,566
30 days−$18,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $166 $202 +$36 (+22%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $163 −$8 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 31¢ 30¢ $119 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $89 $83 −$6 (-7%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $65 $72 +$7 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 54¢ 50¢ $72 $66 −$5 (-8%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-18%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $80 $59 −$21 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $89 $57 −$33 (-37%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 59¢ 58¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $130 $51 −$79 (-61%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 55¢ 70¢ $37 $48 +$10 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $38 $42 +$5 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $37 $39 +$3 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $23 $26 +$4 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$654 -10544874%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$6 -10672%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$384 +354907%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $112 −$76 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $577 −$615 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$83 -5168350%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jun 12 $0 +$92 +465092%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -13480%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 12 $1 −$65 -4381%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$115 -194842%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$91 +714119%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$48 -5969600%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$86 +615948%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $0 −$4 -161362%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Jun 12 $536 −$497 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 12 $0 −$17 -56843%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$93 -516135%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$58 +682914%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$750 -62477000%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$27 -1660831%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$186 -1322553%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $20 −$21 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $331 −$17 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 12 $0 −$5 -3016%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Jun 12 $4 +$23 +609%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $2 +$47 +2679%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $108 −$58 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$311 -3662042%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$30 -353204%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $123 +$100 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 12 $640 −$161 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$38 -5470357%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $0 +$23 +125970%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 3? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $4 −$18 -400%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $120 +$829 +690%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 12 $0 −$10 -15905%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 12 $173 −$149 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$313 -3633758%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Jun 12 $276 −$327 -118%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$47 -600018%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$54 -129619%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jun 12 $25 −$54 -213%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$17 -213572%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$12 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$20 +36672%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1,413 -23157515%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% +$111
weather 3% −$35
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 10m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 14m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $22 14m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 30m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 34m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 34m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 36m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 48m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $23 58m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $33 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+233.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 463 +268.8% +233.6% 30% 27% -6.0%
≤30d 464 +268.3% +233.2% 30% 27% -5.9%
≤90d 464 +268.3% +233.2% 30% 27% -5.9%
all 464 +268.3% +233.2% 30% 27% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover457.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +233.2% 27% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here +201.3% 25% -14.9%
15% +172.2% 24% -23.2%
20% +145.5% 23% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,893.10 · official $1,909.45 (match) · 3500 history records