Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x849e…180e crypto 618 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$234 (-2%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%603W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$163
finance 9% +$20
other 7% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +1.2% -8.5% 99% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 360 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 1% -10.5%
≤90d 620 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 1% -10.7%
all 620 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -10.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$26 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses603 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)620 / 618
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 620 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 12PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 11PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 21h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 98¢ $49 22h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 22h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $48 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.38 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records