Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x849e…57fe politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% $0
other 31% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 16 +0.0% -9.5% 19% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $90 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 10 $90 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 13h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 32h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 43h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 13d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $89 23d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 30d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $89 31d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $89 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 42d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 42d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 46d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 46d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 47d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 48d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $90 66d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 66d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $90 70d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 71d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $90 88d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 89d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 95d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 95d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 95d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 99d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 100d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $90 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records