Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a1…4fb0 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$113 (+3%) realized +$119 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$289
other 8% +$63
sports 2% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 31% -12.3%
≤30d 58 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 58 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 31% -12.3%
all 58 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 31% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 28% -20.7%
15% -22.5% 24% -28.3%
20% -30.1% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$36 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$60 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$84 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$40 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$28 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$143 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $94 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$20 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$62 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$148 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$117 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $305 +$15 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 +$40 +658%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 +$125 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.43 · official $14.43 (match) · 153 history records