Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x84a2…e0b6 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,159 (+26%) realized +$24,173 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$2,244per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$708est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$11,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,940
7 days+$15,506
14 days+$18,853
30 days+$23,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$16,003
other 37% +$7,742
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.6% +15.4% 82% 73% +22.2%
≤30d 39 +11.8% +1.2% 64% 62% +16.7%
≤90d 39 +11.8% +1.2% 64% 62% +16.7%
all 39 +11.8% +1.2% 64% 62% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 62% +16.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 54% +5.5%
15% -17.3% 51% -4.7%
20% -25.5% 44% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,957) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,544 vs −$1,060 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$11,906
Realized+$24,173
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$708
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2,244
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $6,905 $6,860 −$45 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 70¢ 70¢ $4,711 $4,745 +$34 (+1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 54¢ 54¢ $304 $301 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 26 $85 −$84 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,576 −$1,549 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $69 +$43 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7,726 +$7,424 +96%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $93 +$94 +101%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $16 +$12 +73%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,604 +$4,231 +117%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $7,400 +$1,576 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6,229 +$824 +13%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $349 +$7 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17,109 +$2,929 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,419 +$741 +31%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $237 −$235 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $498 −$489 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $107 −$106 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $722 +$701 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,252 +$2,688 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $93 +$47 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $893 −$881 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,051 −$2,019 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3,220 +$2,358 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,957 +$2,649 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $548 +$471 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $403 +$696 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,512 +$659 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,013 +$2,271 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,052 −$3,010 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $683 −$676 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $562 +$519 +92%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $436 −$436 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 08 $162 +$114 +70%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $314 −$310 -99%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? Jun 08 $212 −$210 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $179 +$90 +50%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $13 +$11 +85%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,868 +$4,976 +129%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,652 +$2,473 +93%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,359 −$2,321 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2,553 −$2,514 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $4,754 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3,868 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3,085 3h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $308 11h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY No 34¢ $85 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $1,576 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $635 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $13 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $522 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $153 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $209 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $104 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,906.13 · official $11,906.13 (match) · 295 history records