Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84a7…21ab other 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-6%) realized −$186 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%127W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$6
14 days−$43
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$354
sports 36% +$224
crypto 5% −$41
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +2.1% -7.6% 61% 58% -9.0%
≤30d 196 -7.2% -16.0% 57% 51% -17.4%
≤90d 216 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 53% -15.7%
all 216 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 53% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 53% -15.7%
10% -17.5% 43% -23.8%
15% -25.4% 36% -31.2%
20% -32.8% 24% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses127 / 89
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions16
Markets (closed)216 / 236
History coverage46d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 56¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+49%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$7 -68%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$8 +37%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +165%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 +$1 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$3 +4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 8m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 8m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 0¢ $0 14m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $48 25m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 26m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 29m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 33m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 93¢ $100 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d' BUY 47¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 58¢ $10 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 22h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 25h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.24 · official $193.11 · 521 history records