Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

84 0x84ab…0335 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$41 (+32%) realized +$20 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip

Net edge+102%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+102.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+123.5%	+102.2%	100%	100%	+102.2%
≤30d	1	+123.5%	+102.2%	100%	100%	+102.2%
≤90d	1	+123.5%	+102.2%	100%	100%	+102.2%
all	1	+123.5%	+102.2%	100%	100%	+102.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+102.2%	100%	+102.2%
10%	+82.9%	100%	+82.9%
15%	+65.2%	100%	+65.2%
20%	+49.0%	100%	+49.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +124% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +124% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	21¢	$50	$62	+$12 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	23¢	$40	$50	+$10 (+24%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$15	+$19	+124%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$36	1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	44¢	$15	9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$41	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.92 · official $130.92 (match) · 15 history records