Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84b1…66a4 weather 1531 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$539 (-1%) realized −$538 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate91%1385W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$4
14 days−$14
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$421
sports 6% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 1% -9.6%
≤30d 728 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 1515 -0.5% -9.9% 91% 1% -10.3%
all 1515 -0.5% -9.9% 91% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized−$538
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1385 / 130
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1515 / 1531
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 93¢ 78¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $46 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $11 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $16 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $46 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $46 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 99¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $8 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.14 · official $578.13 (match) · 3500 history records