Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84b2…f1da other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$262 (-2%) realized +$80 · open −$342
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%100W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,049
7 days+$1,271
14 days+$1,271
30 days+$1,271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,277
sports 48% +$562
world 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +70.7% +54.4% 45% 45% +45.6%
≤30d 47 +70.7% +54.4% 45% 45% +45.6%
≤90d 47 +70.7% +54.4% 45% 45% +45.6%
all 224 +9.9% -0.6% 45% 45% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 45% -9.6%
10% -10.1% 44% -18.3%
15% -18.8% 42% -26.2%
20% -26.8% 39% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$62 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$342
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses100 / 124
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions11
Markets (closed)224 / 235
History coverage225d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $325 $272 −$53 (-16%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $220 $175 −$45 (-20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $75 $53 −$22 (-29%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $110 $50 −$60 (-54%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+94%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 22¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Arda Güler win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $60 $31 −$29 (-49%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $75 $26 −$49 (-65%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $107 +$127 +119%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $26 +$74 +291%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$105 +206%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 +$256 +996%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$104 +203%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 +$133 +516%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 +$74 +288%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$58 +113%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $26 +$391 +1521%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 +$60 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$43 +57%
John McGinn: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 +$52 +204%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Casemiro: 1+ goals Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$102 +199%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $76 +$33 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $25 +$37 +146%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 26 $496 −$496 -100%
Sheffield United FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 25 $290 +$206 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $107 16h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 17h
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $26 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $26 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $51 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $101 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 90¢ $282 21h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $26 23h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $26 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 23h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 42h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $89 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $30 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $37 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.67 · official $783.67 (match) · 406 history records