Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84b5…e81f other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%40W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$26
other 26% +$1
sports 12% −$11
politics 6% +$1
finance 5% −$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 61 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 2% -10.2%
all 112 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses40 / 72
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage274d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $81 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $155 −$3 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $161 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $274 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $57 +$3 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $151 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $165 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $189 +$4 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $7 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $108 +$4 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $171 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $82 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $73 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $75 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $105 −$4 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $341 −$5 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $88 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $18 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $109 −$23 -21%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $110 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $99 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $220 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $126 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $81 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $15 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $59 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $78 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $85 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $85 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $8 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $70 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $78 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $50 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $76 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $76 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $59 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $32 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $55 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $74 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.65 · official $81.65 (match) · 548 history records