Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x84b7…f905 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$53 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,053now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$30
world 8% −$60
other 8% −$5
tech 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 5 +22.3% +10.7% 60% 40% -24.1%
≤90d 5 +22.3% +10.7% 60% 40% -24.1%
all 5 +22.3% +10.7% 60% 40% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 40% -24.1%
10% +0.1% 40% -31.3%
15% -9.6% 40% -38.0%
20% -18.4% 20% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$34 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,053
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage62d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $1,040 $1,053 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $108 −$5 -5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $110 −$62 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Jun 08 $13 +$17 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,059 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $103 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $108 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $53 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $48 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $110 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 72¢ $4 61d
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M BUY Aljamain Sterling 43¢ $13 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,053.33 · official $1,053.33 (match) · 14 history records