Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84b7…eeb5 weather 476 markets active 8h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-10%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate80%370W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$56
14 days−$30
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$53
other 6% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -18.0% -25.9% 68% 62% -26.5%
≤30d 308 -4.7% -13.8% 78% 73% -14.1%
≤90d 464 -3.7% -12.9% 80% 71% -13.3%
all 464 -3.7% -12.9% 80% 71% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 71% -13.3%
10% -21.2% 39% -21.6%
15% -28.8% 2% -29.2%
20% -35.8% 1% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses370 / 94
Open positions24
Markets (closed)464 / 476
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 76¢ 76¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 61¢ 90¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+49%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 32¢ 84¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+161%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 83¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? No 81¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? No 90¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? Yes 19¢ 25¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? No 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? No 77¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? No 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? No 81¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? No 84¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 78¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? No 75¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 88¢ 17¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 83¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.35 · official $230.60 (match) · 3500 history records