Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84ba…57c3 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 35% $0
politics 6% +$1
tech 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 25 +2.7% -7.0% 36% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -15.9% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.1% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.5% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage440d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $77 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $116 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $29 −$1 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $14 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 10 $22 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $44 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $44 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $44 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $14 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $28 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $20 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $15 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $43 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $43 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records