Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84c3…35d4
world · 530 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,409 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$803 · open −$392
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,004
Realized−$803
Unrealized−$392
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses159 / 166
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions367
Markets (closed)325 / 530
History coverage14d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day223.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 367 History 325 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days−$229
14 days−$803
30 days−$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $181 $185 +$4 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $201 $162 −$40 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 94¢ $134 $133 −$1 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 99¢ $120 $128 +$7 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $117 $126 +$10 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 81¢ $113 $111 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 100¢ $93 $109 +$16 (+17%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 95¢ 95¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 93¢ 97¢ $101 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 87¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 84¢ 86¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 86¢ 88¢ $94 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 77¢ 91¢ $76 $89 +$14 (+18%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 77¢ 88¢ $75 $86 +$12 (+16%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 78¢ 90¢ $73 $85 +$12 (+17%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $79 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $77 $82 +$5 (+7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 97¢ $61 $81 +$20 (+33%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 88¢ $62 $80 +$19 (+31%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 94¢ 92¢ $80 $78 −$1 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 40¢ 97¢ $33 $78 +$46 (+141%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 96¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $570? Jun 12 $17 −$6 -36%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $26 −$10 -39%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$33 +47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $82 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $76 +$26 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$104 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -4%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$6 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in June? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? Jun 11 $29 −$3 -12%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $17 $0 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zam Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $121 +$3 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $59 +$19 +33%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$19 +100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $197 −$197 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $240 +$260 +108%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $22 +$9 +41%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $90 +$110 +122%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $72 +$7 +10%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 27% −$368
sports 24% −$1,711
world 18% +$463
politics 12% +$65
weather 10% +$157
tech 5% +$30
finance 3% −$108
crypto 2% +$311
culture 0% −$37
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 62¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $4 0m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 29¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $3 5m
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $4.50? SELL No 40¢ $3 8m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $0 12m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 12m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $14 14m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $14 25m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25m
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 26m
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $4.50? BUY No 56¢ $12 26m
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 28m
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $570? SELL No 49¢ $11 28m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $235? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $39 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 77¢ $22 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 1h
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $570? BUY No 76¢ $13 1h
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $570? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 38% -12.0%
≤30d 325 +13.1% +2.3% 49% 40% -14.9%
≤90d 325 +13.1% +2.3% 49% 40% -14.9%
all 325 +13.1% +2.3% 49% 40% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover223.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 40% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 30% -23.0%
15% -16.4% 23% -30.5%
20% -24.6% 19% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,004.46 · official $9,005.99 (match) · 3500 history records