Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84c4…6f47 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-5%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%58W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 28% -40.3%
≤30d 31 -32.2% -38.6% 29% 26% -37.3%
≤90d 126 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 40% -17.3%
all 126 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 40% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 40% -17.3%
10% -30.3% 35% -25.2%
15% -37.0% 29% -32.4%
20% -43.2% 23% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses58 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage50d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$52 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $9 +$12 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 25 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 17 $3 +$7 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 15 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 15 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $56 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 10 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records