Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84c9…8397 crypto 427 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$496 (-9%) realized −$496 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%243W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$20
14 days−$141
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$539
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +3.5% -6.4% 63% 58% -8.0%
≤30d 277 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 52% -18.7%
≤90d 427 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 53% -18.2%
all 427 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 53% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 53% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 49% -26.1%
15% -29.9% 40% -33.2%
20% -36.8% 33% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses243 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 427
History coverage59d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$10 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$14 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$7 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$14 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$16 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$11 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$24 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$12 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$16 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$17 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$14 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$6 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$7 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$12 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$7 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$36 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$20 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$8 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$12 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$44 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $9 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $46 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1339 history records