Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84cb…22b2 sports 225 markets active 10h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%77W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$39
14 days−$10
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$12
other 13% −$11
world 10% −$1
economics 6% −$1
politics 5% −$2
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -18.4% -26.2% 48% 31% -27.5%
≤30d 128 -7.2% -16.0% 38% 23% -14.1%
≤90d 201 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 27% -10.1%
all 201 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 27% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 27% -10.1%
10% -22.0% 20% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 17% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses77 / 124
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)201 / 225
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 80¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 95¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$3 +81%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +246%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +72%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bath win? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$4 +99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$4 +203%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $6 +$6 +95%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Daniel vs. Nava: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Daniel vs. Nava: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Arias/Ingildsen vs Forcano/Vervoort Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
ITF Guimaraes: Angelina Voloshchuk vs Aliona Falei Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Madrid: Briyana Ivanova vs Paula Cembranos Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Cuenin vs. Baroni: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Cuenin vs Baroni Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +28%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $6 +$13 +218%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Valentini Grammatikopoulou vs Ksenia Krupenina Jun 10 $2 +$1 +49%
ITF Nice: Manon Favier vs Julia Stusek Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 95¢ $2 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $2 16h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $0 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 36¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 36¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 33¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 95¢ $2 2d
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY VARREL 96¢ $2 2d
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY VARREL 96¢ $2 2d
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY VARREL 96¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 95¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $2 2d
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY VARREL 96¢ $2 3d
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY VARREL 97¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.11 · official $61.23 · 663 history records