Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84cd…7565 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,785 (-29%) realized −$2,736 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$544
7 days−$544
14 days−$544
30 days−$1,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$779
world 32% −$1,869
finance 5% +$45
crypto 2% −$110
sports 1% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -75.8% -78.1% 17% 0% -95.4%
≤30d 12 -65.7% -69.0% 17% 8% -62.8%
≤90d 33 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 21% -34.3%
all 40 -44.5% -49.8% 28% 20% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 20% -37.7%
10% -54.6% 15% -43.7%
15% -59.0% 12% -49.1%
20% -63.0% 10% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$175 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized−$2,736
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage148d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $440 $391 −$49 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$14 -40%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $193 −$189 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $166 +$34 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $194 −$28 -15%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $547 −$217 -40%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $89 −$87 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $191 −$188 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $205 −$200 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $295 −$191 -65%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 13 $538 −$525 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 13 $489 +$50 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $25 −$24 -97%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 04 $901 −$784 -87%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 +$177 +178%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $400 +$163 +41%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $498 −$498 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $400 +$81 +20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-02? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 24 $898 −$897 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $100 +$23 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1,284 +$999 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $165 +$726 +440%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 29 $51 +$49 +96%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $165 −$165 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $99 −$99 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $442 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $50 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 44h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 44h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $193 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $199 22d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $166 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $166 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $194 28d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $136 29d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $136 29d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $89 29d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 29d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $308 29d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $191 39d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 46d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 46d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 40¢ $95 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 47d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $538 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? SELL No 89¢ $539 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.65 · official $390.65 (match) · 78 history records